How to Bet on Premier League Games
The popularity of soccer in the United States has been building for many years and has all but reached a fever pitch in recent years. While America has its own domestic soccer league, the English Premier League is also wildly popular with fans in the U.S. After all, it’s arguably the best soccer league in the world and is home to some of the biggest stars on the planet.
Naturally, betting is a part of that popularity, especially with more states legalizing sports betting in one form or another. While betting on Premier League games is a little more complicated than betting on American sports, there is a lot of upside and makes the games even more compelling. With a little tutelage, anyone can learn how to bet on Premier League games.
Premier League Season Structure
The Premier League has a structure that’s easy to follow. There are 20 teams, and each team plays every other team twice during the season. It’s a double round-robin, meaning each team plays 38 games. Of course, there are domestic cup competitions and European competitions like the Champions League mixed in along the way. But the Premier League season itself is simply 38 match days.
For the most part, the Premier League plays its games on Saturday and Sunday. The league will slip in Friday and Monday games sometimes. There are also a few occasions when the Premier League schedules a full slate of games for the middle of the week. However, outside of international breaks, every weekend from mid-August to mid-May, there are 10 Premier League games with all 20 teams in action.
Single Game Premier League Bets
If you do the math, there are 380 Premier League games every season. However, there are far more than 380 ways to bet on Premier League games because there are multiple ways to bet on any given game.
With ties a part of soccer, there are three potential betting outcomes for every Premier League game. That means there are three moneylines, two for each team to get a win and one if the match ends in a draw. For example, Team A might have a moneyline of +120, Team B will have a moneyline of +270, and a draw will be set at +200.
Obviously, this makes it a little more difficult to make a winning wager. However, it can also help bettors make bigger profits with the right selection. Unless one team is a significant favorite over the other, all three moneylines for most Premier League games will have a “+,” creating a big upside for bettors who pick the game correctly.
If three moneylines are too complicated for some bettors, it’s possible to have just two moneylines for a Premier League game. In fact, there are two ways to do this. The first method is called Draw No Bet. As the name implies, the bettor chooses one of the teams, and if the match ends in a draw, the bet is void, and the wager is returned.
For example, if Team A’s moneyline is +120 in a three-way moneyline, that moneyline might change to -190 in a Draw No Bet wager. Meanwhile, Team B’s moneyline will go from +270 to +130. This is closer to a more traditional type of moneyline betting that tries to take the draw out of the equation.
Premier League games and all other soccer games also have Double Chance betting. This is when bettors can wager money on a specific team winning or a draw taking place. Essentially, you are wagering on two of the three possible outcomes happening. This is useful when bettors are only marginally confident in their pick and want a safety net.
Of course, because you win the bet with two of the three outcomes, the moneyline shrinks. Team A’s three-way moneyline would be +120, but Team A or a draw might be listed at -360. Meanwhile, Team B’s original moneyline of +270 might shrink to -165 if it’s Team B or a draw.
While most Premier League bets are made based on the moneyline, it’s also possible to place bets on the goal line, which is akin to betting the spread in football or basketball. For most games, the goal line will be .5 goals, which means the favored team will only need to win by a single goal. Meanwhile, a draw will be akin to the underdog team winning against the spread.
Of course, there are times when a mismatch causes the goal line to be 1.5 goals, 2.5 goals, or more. For instance, if powerhouse Liverpool were facing Burnley, it’s possible the goal line could be set at 2.5 goals, forcing Liverpool to win the game by at least three goals; otherwise, they would lose against the spread.
Betting on the total number of goals in a game is also a popular form of Premier League betting. Most matches will have a predetermined over/under for the total number of goals that’s set by oddsmakers based largely on the offensive prowess of each team. For example, a game between Liverpool and Burnley might have an over/under of 3.5 goals.
However, depending on the bookmaker, bettors might be able to pick the over/under total that they prefer. For instance, one bettor could place a bet on under 1.5 goals while another could place a bet on over 2.5 goals. Of course, the moneylines will be adjusted for each goal total based on the initial over/under set by oddsmakers.
With scoring being at a premium in Premier League games, it’s possible for bettors to make wagers on the exact score of a game. Of course, you can’t predict a 2-1 win; you have to predict what team will win 2-1. Bookmakers that accept this type of bet will usually have more than a dozen score options available, each with a different moneyline. Obviously, this is even more difficult than picking a winner, but for experienced bettors, it can be worthwhile because the moneylines are rather lucrative.
Naturally, live betting is also an option during Premier League games. As the game moves along, whether goals are scored or not, oddsmakers will readjust the moneylines for each potential outcome. For example, if Team A leads Team B 1-0 in the 60th minute, the moneyline for Team B winning will become more lucrative because that result is becoming less likely.
In addition to simply betting on the outcome of the game, live betting during Premier League games opens up a variety of other options. For example, bettors could make wagers on the next team to score a goal, the next player to score a goal, the time of the next goal, the next player to be booked, and a variety of other bets.
Prop Bets
If you thought three-way moneylines held a lot of possibilities when betting on Premier League games, prop bets create even more possibilities. In short, prop bets are anything that’s unrelated to the actual score of the game. With 22 players on the field and a lot going on that doesn’t involve goals being scored, there is an almost endless number of potential prop bets during Premier League games.
Bets are potentially available for anything a player could do on the field. This is particularly popular with star players. For instance, one could wager money on Harry Kane scoring a hat trick. One could wager money on James Ward-Prowse scoring from a set-piece. One could also bet on a player committing a penalty in the box or scoring an own goal. The limits are almost endless.
Goal props are distinct from betting on the total number of goals in a game. For instance, one could bet on there being an even number of goals scored in the game. One could bet on at least one goal being scored on a header. In the era of VAR, bettors can even place a wager on a goal being taken back by VAR during a Premier League game.
For some fans, making bets based on corner kicks may not sound like the most exciting wager, but it’s possible. There are over/under bets for the number of corner kicks a particular Premier League team will have during the game. It’s also possible to bet on whether or not a corner kick will lead to a goal during the game.
If corner kick prop bets aren’t your speed, booking props might be more exciting. This is when bettors can wager money on the number of yellow cards that will be handed out by the ref in a given game. It’s also possible to bet on whether or not a player will receive a red card during a game. One could also bet on whether or not a specific player receives a booking during a game.
When it comes to miscellaneous prop bets, the sky’s the limit. While not every bookmaker will offer wagers on every possible occurrence, there are plenty of odd wagers to be found in the Premier League. One could bet on whether or not the two managers will shake hands before or after the game. One could be on whether a specific player wears a headband during the game. One could even bet on the type of goal celebration a player performs. The possibilities are virtually endless.
Future Bets
Before the start of every Premier League season, and even after the season starts, futures betting is also a popular form of betting. For instance, when Leicester City won the 2016 Premier League title, a small collection of fans cashed in on small bets they made before the season when the club had 5000-1 odds to win the title.
Obviously, making a bet on the Premier League winner is popular. But it’s not the only form of futures betting available. Every team has a secondary goal of finishing in the top-4 places to secure a Champions League spot for the next season, so futures bets are available for teams finishing among the top-4 spots.
On the other end of the table, bettors can also place wagers on what teams will be relegated after the season. It’s also possible to bet on a team being able to avoid relegation. In fact, some bets are even more general, with wagers being possible on whether a team will finish in the top half or the bottom half of the 20-team table.
Futures betting is also possible for players and managers. On the player front, it’s possible to make wagers on what player will lead the league in scoring or win postseason awards. For managers, some bookmakers will take wagers on the next Premier League manager to be fired. Some will also entertain bets on who will fill a managerial vacancy.
Premier League Betting Strategies
With so many different forms of betting available in the Premier League, it’s easy for novice bettors to get confused or overwhelmed. The general rule in betting is to avoid betting on what you don’t know. In other words, if you’re not familiar with both teams and the players on each side, don’t bet on that game.
Of course, there are a few more strategies that are specific to the Premier League that potential bettors should know about. For instance, avoid betting too early in the season. During the first few weeks of the season, things rarely go as planned. Most teams made meaningful changes to their squad during the offseason, so you won’t be seeing the same team that ended the previous season. Also, most of the top players may have spent the summer playing in international tournaments, so they could come back a little tired. Rarely does a team lead the standings from start to finish, so expect some early surprises.
Also, keep in mind that the Premier League is not the only competition for some of the top teams in the league. These teams might have midweek games in Champions League or Europa League, meaning they might have traveled and will be more likely to rest regular starters during a Premier League game. However, some teams will take the Premier League more seriously than European competitions, meaning they will rotate the starters midweek and play their best lineup in the Premier League. In other words, track the team’s lineup over several games to better predict who will play or just wait until the starting lineups are released an hour before the game starts.
Finally, examine your options and look for value. There are far too many good teams in the Premier League to blindly pick the favorite in every game, especially since heavy favorites offer little payout. Look for mid-table teams that are undervalued and have a chance to surprise a favorite with a win or even a draw. Also, keep an eye on games between some of the lesser teams in the Premier League. They can sometimes be a little more predictable than the teams at the top. In the end, don’t bet just to bet. Be patient, examine your options, and look for the right bet. If you can educate yourself on the teams and look for value, the Premier League can be a great place to make winning wagers.
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