The Illinois State Redbirds (13-9, 5-6 MVC) are 8.5-point favorites as they look to build on a three-game home winning streak when they square off against the Valparaiso Beacons (10-12, 3-8 MVC) on Saturday, February 1, 2025 at CEFCU Arena. The contest airs at 5:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The matchup has an over/under of 145.
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Bet $20, Payout $38.02
Illinois State Cover -8.5 vs Valparaiso -111
Illinois State vs. Valparaiso betting lines
- Illinois State moneyline odds to win: -403
- Valparaiso moneyline odds to win: +314
- Spread: Illinois State (-8.5)
- Total: 145
Illinois State statistics, trends and more
As the home team
- Illinois State has covered the spread in a lower percentage of its home games than road games. It has covered six times in 11 games at home, and it has covered six times in seven games when playing on the road.
- The Redbirds have gone over the over/under more consistently when playing at home, hitting the over in seven of 11 home matchups (63.6%). On the road, they have hit the over in four of seven games (57.1%).
- Illinois State has won a higher percentage of its matchups as a moneyline favorite at home, going 6-3 (.667). In road games as a moneyline favorite, it sports a record of 0-1 (.000).
Recent trends
- The Redbirds have seen a downturn in scoring lately, racking up 72 points per game in their last 10 contests, 4.4 points fewer than the 76.4 they’ve scored this year.
- Illinois State’s points-allowed average over its past 10 games (70.3) is 1.1 fewer points per game than the team is allowing over the entire season (71.4).
- The Redbirds’ last 10 contests have seen them make 9.5 three-pointers per game while shooting 35.6% from deep. Both numbers are down from their 2024-25 averages of 10.3 makes and 38.9%.
Illinois State betting records this season
- ATS Record: 14-7-0 (Home: 6-5-0; Away: 6-1-0)
- ATS Record When Favored by 8.5+: 1-2-0 (As Favorite: 4-6-0; As Underdog: 10-1-0)
- O-U-P: 13-8-0 (Home: 7-4-0; Away: 4-3-0)
- Record When Moneyline Favorite: 6-4 (Home: 6-3; Away: 0-1)
- Record When Moneyline Underdog: 6-5 (Home: 2-0; Away: 3-3)
| Field Goal % | Opp. Field Goal % | Rebounds | Opp. Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.2 (37th in nation) | 44.9 (264th) | 31 (266th) | 28.3 (43rd) | 14.2 (147th) | 9.9 (42nd) |
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Valparaiso statistics, trends and more
As the away team
- Valparaiso has been better against the spread at home (6-5-0) than away (4-3-1) this year.
- Beacons games have finished above the over/under 63.6% of the time at home (seven of 11), and 62.5% of the time on the road (five of eight).
- The Beacons’ winning percentage at home as moneyline underdogs is .400 (2-3), and on the road it is .250 (2-6).
Recent trends
- While the Beacons are posting 76.8 points per game in 2024-25, they have fallen short of that in their previous 10 games, amassing 72.5 points per contest.
- Valparaiso is ceding 76.9 points per game over its last 10 games, which is 2.9 more points than it is allowing for the season (74).
- The Beacons are making 0.3 fewer threes per contest over their last 10 games (7.4) compared to their season average (7.7), and they are producing a lower three-point percentage over their past 10 contests (32%) compared to their season mark (33.1%).
Valparaiso betting records this season
- ATS Record: 10-9-1 (Home: 6-5-0; Away: 4-3-1)
- ATS Record When Underdog by 8.5+: 3-3-0 (As Favorite: 4-3-0; As Underdog: 6-6-1)
- O-U-P: 13-7-0 (Home: 7-4-0; Away: 5-3-0)
- Record When Moneyline Favorite: 4-2 (Home: 4-2; Away: 0-0)
- Record When Moneyline Underdog: 4-10 (Home: 2-3; Away: 2-6)
| Field Goal % | Opp. Field Goal % | Rebounds | Opp. Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.2 (268th in nation) | 45.8 (299th) | 32.2 (186th) | 31.6 (205th) | 11.8 (312th) | 10.1 (64th) |
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