Week 1 action in the NFL features Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins matching up against the Indianapolis Colts at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. Let’s take a look at Tagovailoa’s prop bets available for this matchup, and break down his stats and trends to figure out the best value picks.
Passing Yards Prop
Bet $20, Payout $37.70
Tua Tagovailoa to go over 246.5 yards
Tua Tagovailoa Prop Lines
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Date: September 7, 2025
- Passing yards prop: Over 246.5 (-113)
- Rushing yards prop: Over 1.5 (-120)
Tua Tagovailoa Stats and Trends
- Tagovailoa’s stats last year included 2,867 passing yards (260.6 per game), completing 291 of 399 passes (72.9%), with 19 TDs and seven INTs.
- Tagovailoa finished with 260.6 passing yards per game last season. That’s higher than his prop bet over/under for this matchup (246.5).
- In five of 11 contests last year (45.5%), Tagovailoa aired it out for more than 246.5 yards.
- His rushing yards average of 4.5 last year was 1.4 more than his average over/under.
- Tagovailoa went over on passing yards prop bets in five of 11 games last season (45.5%).
- He had a passing touchdown in all 11 games last season (with multiple passing TDs in five of them).
Last Season Performances vs. the Colts
| Week | Opponent | Pass Yards Allowed | Pass TDs Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texans | 204 | 2 |
| 2 | Packers | 122 | 1 |
| 3 | Bears | 332 | 2 |
| 4 | Steelers | 282 | 1 |
| 5 | Jaguars | 371 | 2 |
| 6 | Titans | 95 | 1 |
| 7 | Dolphins | 149 | 1 |
| 8 | Texans | 267 | 1 |
| 9 | Vikings | 282 | 3 |
| 10 | Bills | 280 | 0 |
| 11 | Jets | 162 | 2 |
| 12 | Lions | 253 | 0 |
| 13 | Patriots | 222 | 1 |
| 15 | Broncos | 121 | 3 |
| 16 | Titans | 242 | 2 |
| 17 | Giants | 309 | 4 |
| 18 | Jaguars | 206 | 1 |
Dolphins Away Splits (Last Season)
- On the road last year, the Dolphins scored fewer points (16.3 per game) than they did overall (20.3). But they also allowed fewer in road games (20) than overall (21.4).
- On the road, the Dolphins accumulated fewer yards (304.2 per game) than they did overall (325.4). But they also conceded fewer on the road (313.9) than overall (314.4).
- On the road last season, the Dolphins picked up fewer passing yards (197.3 per game) than they did overall (219.8). But they also allowed fewer passing yards on the road (203.6) than overall (210.7).
- The Dolphins accumulated 106.9 rushing yards per game in road games (1.3 more than overall), and allowed 110.3 on the road (6.6 more than overall).
- The Dolphins successfully converted 29.4% of third downs away from home in 2024 (6.9% less than overall), and conceded on 36.6% of third downs in away games (0.7% more than overall).
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