The No. 16 Virginia Cavaliers (14-2, 3-1 ACC) are 4.5-point underdogs as they attempt to build on a three-game winning streak when they visit the No. 20 Louisville Cardinals (12-4, 2-2 ACC) on Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at KFC Yum! Center. The game airs at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2. The over/under is 153.5 for the matchup.
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Spread
Bet $20, Payout $38.18
Louisville Cover -4.5 vs Virginia -110
Louisville vs. Virginia betting lines
- Louisville moneyline odds to win: -197
- Virginia moneyline odds to win: +163
- Spread: Louisville (-4.5)
- Total: 153.5
Louisville statistics, trends and more
As the home team
- Louisville owns a better record against the spread at home (6-4-0) than it does on the road (1-3-0).
- The Cardinals have exceeded the total in four of 10 home games (40%), compared to one of four road games (25%).
- As a moneyline favorite, Louisville has picked up the win in eight of eight games at home, good for a 1.000 winning percentage. It has won one of three games away from home (.333) as a moneyline favorite.
Recent trends
- On the offensive side of the ball, the Cardinals have had a hard time putting the ball in the basket over their last 10 games, scoring 84.0 points per contest over that span as opposed to the 88.3 they’ve put up over the course of this year.
- Louisville’s points-allowed average over its past 10 games (72.0) is 2.4 more points per game than the team is allowing over the entire season (69.6).
- The Cardinals’ past 10 contests have seen them make 11.6 three-pointers per game while shooting 33.9% from deep. Both numbers are below their 2025-26 averages of 11.8 makes and 34.8%.
Louisville betting records this season
- ATS Record: 9-7-0 (Home: 6-4-0; Away: 1-3-0)
- ATS Record When Favored by 4.5+: 8-4-0 (As Favorite: 9-5-0; As Underdog: 0-2-0)
- O-U-P: 6-10-0 (Home: 4-6-0; Away: 1-3-0)
- Record When Moneyline Favorite: 11-2 (Home: 8-0; Away: 1-2)
- Record When Moneyline Underdog: 0-2 (Home: 0-1; Away: 0-1)
| Field Goal % | Opp. Field Goal % | Rebounds | Opp. Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.8 (110th in nation) | 39.3 (26th) | 39.6 (eighth) | 30.0 (130th) | 17.8 (33rd) | 11.5 (186th) |
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Virginia statistics, trends and more
As the away team
- In 2024-25 against the spread, Virginia had a lower winning percentage at home (.412, 7-10-0 record) than away (.455, 5-6-0).
- In terms of the over/under, Cavaliers games went over eight of 17 times at home (47.1%) and nine of 11 on the road (81.8%) last season.
- The Cavaliers, as moneyline underdogs, won a lower percentage of games at home (1-6) than on the road (4-7) last year.
Recent trends
- The Cavaliers have fared worse offensively over their last 10 games, scoring 84.2 points per contest, 0.9 fewer points their than season average of 85.1.
- Over its last 10 games, Virginia is allowing 66.5 points per game, compared to its season average of 66.8 points allowed.
- The Cavaliers are sinking 10.6 three-pointers per game over their previous 10 games, which is 0.3 more than their average for the season (10.3). Likewise, they own a higher three-point percentage over their previous 10 games (37.9%) compared to their season average from downtown (36.7%).
Virginia betting records this season
- ATS Record: 10-6-0 (Home: 6-4-0; Away: 2-1-0)
- ATS Record When Underdog by 4.5+: 1-0-0 (As Favorite: 8-6-0; As Underdog: 2-0-0)
- O-U-P: 7-9-0 (Home: 3-7-0; Away: 2-1-0)
- Record When Moneyline Favorite: 10-2 (Home: 8-0; Away: 0-1)
- Record When Moneyline Underdog: 2-0 (Home: 0-0; Away: 2-0)
| Field Goal % | Opp. Field Goal % | Rebounds | Opp. Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.1 (58th in nation) | 38.0 (sixth) | 38.3 (16th) | 29.2 (86th) | 17.6 (35th) | 10.3 (79th) |
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