The No. 16 Virginia Cavaliers (15-2, 4-1 ACC) are 1.5-point favorites as they attempt to continue a four-game winning streak when they visit the SMU Mustangs (13-4, 2-2 ACC) on Saturday, January 17, 2026 at Moody Coliseum. The contest airs at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2. The over/under in the matchup is 153.5.
Check out all the Latest NCAA Basketball Betting Previews!
Virginia Cover -1.5 vs SMU -115
Virginia vs. SMU betting lines
- Virginia moneyline odds to win: -138
- SMU moneyline odds to win: +116
- Spread: Virginia (-1.5)
- Total: 153.5
Virginia statistics, trends and more
As the away team
- In home games, Virginia has a worse record against the spread (6-4-0) compared to its ATS record in road games (3-1-0).
- The Cavaliers have gone over the over/under less consistently at home, hitting the over in three of 10 home matchups (30%). In away games, they have hit the over in two of four games (50%).
- Virginia has won a higher percentage of its games as a moneyline favorite when playing at home, going 8-0 (1.000). In road games as a moneyline favorite, it has a record of 0-1 (.000).
Recent trends
- The Cavaliers have seen a downturn in scoring lately, putting up 82.7 points per game in their last 10 outings, 2.0 points fewer than the 84.7 they’ve scored this year.
- Virginia has been tougher on defense lately, giving up 66.6 points per game over its last 10 outings compared to the 67.0 points per game its opponents average in the 2025-26 season.
- During their past 10 contests, the Cavaliers are making the same number of three-pointers per game as their season long average (10.5), while shooting a higher percentage from beyond the arc in that span (37.4% compared to 37.0% season-long).
Virginia betting records this season
- ATS Record: 11-6-0 (Home: 6-4-0; Away: 3-1-0)
- ATS Record When Favored by 1.5+: 8-6-0 (As Favorite: 8-6-0; As Underdog: 3-0-0)
- O-U-P: 7-10-0 (Home: 3-7-0; Away: 2-2-0)
- Record When Moneyline Favorite: 10-2 (Home: 8-0; Away: 0-1)
- Record When Moneyline Underdog: 3-0 (Home: 0-0; Away: 3-0)
| Field Goal % | Opp. Field Goal % | Rebounds | Opp. Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.7 (68th in nation) | 37.9 (fourth) | 38.5 (16th) | 29.4 (96th) | 17.4 (39th) | 10.5 (97th) |
Need to know more about sports betting before you put down a wager on Virginia vs. SMU? Here’s everything you need to know about how to bet.
SMU statistics, trends and more
As the home team
- SMU has been better against the spread on the road (2-1-1) than at home (5-6-0) this year.
- Mustangs games have gone above the over/under more frequently at home (six times out of 11) than away (one of four) this year.
Recent trends
- In their previous 10 games, the Mustangs are posting 85.4 points per game, 3.0 fewer points than their season average (88.4).
- In its last 10 games, SMU is allowing 79.8 points per contest, 2.8 more points than its season average (77.0).
- The Mustangs are sinking 7.7 treys per contest with a 34.7% three-point percentage over their previous 10 games, compared to their season averages of 7.6 and 35.7%.
SMU betting records this season
- ATS Record: 8-8-1 (Home: 5-6-0; Away: 2-1-1)
- ATS Record When Underdog by 1.5+: 3-2-1 (As Favorite: 4-6-0; As Underdog: 4-2-1)
- O-U-P: 9-8-0 (Home: 6-5-0; Away: 1-3-0)
- Record When Moneyline Favorite: 11-0 (Home: 11-0; Away: 0-0)
- Record When Moneyline Underdog: 2-4 (Home: 0-0; Away: 1-3)
| Field Goal % | Opp. Field Goal % | Rebounds | Opp. Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.1 (19th in nation) | 42.8 (138th) | 35.1 (77th) | 30.7 (157th) | 17.9 (29th) | 11.4 (180th) |
BetDecider Team
The BetDecider team brings you the most current sports betting content, with expert insights and tips. Our aim is that you can make an informed betting decision, including best odds and exclusive sportsbook offers, to maximize your betting experience.
