The Missouri State Bears (13-16, 7-11 CUSA) will try to end a seven-game losing streak when they host the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (18-11, 11-7 CUSA) on Thursday, March 5, 2026 at Great Southern Bank Arena as just 2.5-point underdogs. The game airs at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The matchup has an over/under of 153.5.
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Western Kentucky Cover -2.5 vs Missouri State -108
Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State betting lines
- Western Kentucky moneyline odds to win: -138
- Missouri State moneyline odds to win: +114
- Spread: Western Kentucky (-2.5)
- Total: 153.5
Western Kentucky statistics, trends and more
As the away team
- At home, Western Kentucky owns an identical winning percentage against the spread as it does in road games (.500).
- The Hilltoppers have exceeded the total more consistently when playing at home, hitting the over in eight of 14 home matchups (57.1%). In away games, they have hit the over in four of 10 games (40%).
- At home, Western Kentucky has won more consistently as a moneyline favorite, producing a record of 10-2 (.833). In away games, it is 3-1 (.750) as a moneyline favorite.
Recent trends
- The Hilltoppers have seen a decrease in scoring recently, putting up 79.2 points per game in their last 10 outings, 0.4 points fewer than the 79.6 they’ve scored this year.
- Western Kentucky has been a little improved on the defensive end of the floor of late, allowing 72.1 points per game over its last 10 contests compared to the 74.5 it has conceded per game this season.
- The Hilltoppers are trending up from beyond the arc over their last 10 outings, making 9.1 threes per game and shooting 35.1% from long range compared to their season-long averages of 8.6 makes and 34.1% from distance in the 2025-26 season.
Western Kentucky betting records this season
- ATS Record: 15-12-0 (Home: 7-7-0; Away: 5-5-0)
- ATS Record When Favored by 2.5+: 7-8-0 (As Favorite: 8-8-0; As Underdog: 7-4-0)
- O-U-P: 13-14-0 (Home: 8-6-0; Away: 4-6-0)
- Record When Moneyline Favorite: 13-3 (Home: 10-2; Away: 3-1)
- Record When Moneyline Underdog: 3-8 (Home: 0-2; Away: 2-4)
| Field Goal % | Opp. Field Goal % | Rebounds | Opp. Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.3 (339th in nation) | 42.4 (80th) | 35.6 (33rd) | 32.9 (295th) | 13.6 (196th) | 9.9 (65th) |
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Missouri State statistics, trends and more
As the home team
- In 2025-26 against the spread, Missouri State has a lower winning percentage at home (.462, 6-7-0 record) than away (.615, 8-5-0).
- In terms of the over/under, Bears games have finished over 61.5% of the time this season, both at home (eight of 13) and on the road (eight of 13).
Recent trends
- The Bears are putting up 73.3 points per contest in their previous 10 games, which is 2.0 fewer points than their average for the season (75.3).
- Missouri State is surrendering 75.7 points per contest over its past 10 games, compared to its season average of 73.9 points allowed.
- The Bears are sinking 7.5 treys per game in their last 10 games, which is 0.1 fewer three-pointers than their average for the season (7.6). That said, they have a higher three-point percentage over their last 10 contests (34.2%) compared to their season average from downtown (32.3%).
Missouri State betting records this season
- ATS Record: 14-12-0 (Home: 6-7-0; Away: 8-5-0)
- ATS Record When Underdog by 2.5+: 6-5-0 (As Favorite: 7-7-0; As Underdog: 7-5-0)
- O-U-P: 16-10-0 (Home: 8-5-0; Away: 8-5-0)
- Record When Moneyline Favorite: 8-6 (Home: 7-6; Away: 1-0)
- Record When Moneyline Underdog: 2-10 (Home: 0-0; Away: 2-10)
| Field Goal % | Opp. Field Goal % | Rebounds | Opp. Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44.4 (230th in nation) | 45.4 (257th) | 30.7 (253rd) | 30.6 (158th) | 14.3 (144th) | 11.0 (193rd) |
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