Week 15 NFL action pits Baker Mayfield and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers teammates versus the Atlanta Falcons at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday Let’s take a look at Mayfield’s prop bets available for this contest, and break down his stats and trends to figure out the top value picks.
Passing Yards Prop
Bet $20, Payout $38.02
Baker Mayfield to go over 219.5 yards
Baker Mayfield Prop Lines
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Date: December 11, 2025
- Passing yards prop: Over 219.5 (-111)
- Rushing yards prop: Over 20.5 (-108)
Baker Mayfield Stats and Trends
- Mayfield has passed for 2,722 yards (209.4 per game), completing 61.6% of his passes, with 20 TDs and six INTs.
- Thursday’s prop bet for Mayfield is 219.5 passing yards, which is 10.1 more yards than his average of 209.4 on the year.
- In 13 games this year, Mayfield has surpassed 219.5 passing yards six times.
- His passing yards average of 209.4 yards this year is lower than his average prop bet total (233.5) by 24.1 passing yards.
- This year, Mayfield has finished above his passing yards total four times (30.8%).
- He has tossed a touchdown pass in 12 of 13 games this season, with more than one TD throw six times.
- In addition Mayfield has 285 yards rushing on 43 attempts with one TD, averaging 21.9 yards per game.
Recent Performances vs. the Falcons
| Week | Opponent | Pass Yards Allowed | Pass TDs Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buccaneers | 159 | 3 |
| 2 | Vikings | 120 | 0 |
| 3 | Panthers | 114 | 0 |
| 4 | Commanders | 147 | 2 |
| 6 | Bills | 157 | 2 |
| 7 | 49ers | 150 | 0 |
| 8 | Dolphins | 197 | 4 |
| 9 | Patriots | 221 | 2 |
| 10 | Colts | 196 | 1 |
| 11 | Panthers | 419 | 3 |
| 12 | Saints | 214 | 0 |
| 13 | Jets | 159 | 1 |
| 14 | Seahawks | 236 | 3 |
Buccaneers Home Splits
- The Buccaneers put up 24.5 points per game in home games (1.5 more than their overall average), and give up 24.3 at home (0.7 less than overall).
- The Buccaneers rack up 337.7 yards per game at home (22.7 more than their overall average), and give up 318.5 at home (19.9 less than overall).
- The Buccaneers accumulate 218.2 passing yards per game at home (18.4 more than their overall average), and concede 209.5 at home (28.3 less than overall).
- At home, the Buccaneers rack up 119.5 rushing yards per game and give up 109. That’s more than they gain (115.2) and allow (100.6) overall.
- The Buccaneers convert 32.9% of third downs in home games (5.5% lower than their overall average), and give up 37.8% at home (2.3% lower than overall).
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