NFL play for Week 18 includes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield hitting the field versus the Carolina Panthers at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. With prop bets available for Mayfield in this outing, let’s dig into the stats and trends to help you make good predictions.
Passing Yards Prop
Bet $20, Payout $37.70
Baker Mayfield to go over 220.5 yards
Baker Mayfield Prop Lines
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
- Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Date: January 3, 2026
- Passing yards prop: Over 220.5 (-113)
- Rushing yards prop: Over 18.5 (-111)
Baker Mayfield Stats and Trends
- Mayfield has passed for 3,490 yards (218.1 per game), completing 62.8% of his throws, with 25 TDs and 10 INTs.
- Mayfield throws for 218.1 yards per game. That’s 2.4 fewer yards than his over/under on Saturday.
- In 16 games this season, Mayfield has surpassed 220.5 passing yards eight times.
- His average prop bet for passing yards this season has been 232.1. His actual passing average is below that — by 14.0 yards per game.
- So far this year, Mayfield has exceeded his passing yards prop total in six of 16 opportunities.
- He has completed a touchdown pass in 15 of 16 games this season — including multiple TDs eight times.
- Mayfield has tacked on 351 yards on 51 carries and one touchdown, averaging 21.9 yards rushing per game.
Recent Performances vs. the Panthers
| Week | Opponent | Pass Yards Allowed | Pass TDs Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaguars | 178 | 1 |
| 2 | Cardinals | 211 | 1 |
| 3 | Falcons | 201 | 0 |
| 4 | Patriots | 203 | 2 |
| 5 | Dolphins | 229 | 3 |
| 6 | Cowboys | 261 | 3 |
| 7 | Jets | 139 | 0 |
| 8 | Bills | 165 | 1 |
| 9 | Packers | 265 | 0 |
| 10 | Saints | 266 | 2 |
| 11 | Falcons | 223 | 0 |
| 12 | 49ers | 193 | 1 |
| 13 | Rams | 227 | 2 |
| 15 | Saints | 256 | 1 |
| 16 | Buccaneers | 127 | 1 |
| 17 | Seahawks | 125 | 1 |
Buccaneers Home Splits
- The Buccaneers’ average points scored (25) and allowed (25) in home games are both higher than their overall averages of 22.8 and 24.8, respectively.
- At home, the Buccaneers rack up 337.7 yards per game and concede 341. That’s more than they gain (319.3) and allow (340.5) overall.
- The Buccaneers’ average yards passing at home (222.7) is higher than their overall average (206.4). And their average yards allowed at home (231.7) is lower than overall (236.4).
- The Buccaneers’ average rushing yards gained (115) and allowed (109.3) at home are both higher than their overall averages of 112.9 and 104.1, respectively.
- The Buccaneers’ third-down percentages on offense (34.1%) and defense (38.8%) in home games are both lower than their overall numbers of 40.4% and 40.6%, respectively.
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