The Bowling Green Falcons (16-13, 7-9 MAC) bring a three-game losing streak into a home matchup with the UMass Minutemen (15-14, 6-10 MAC), who have lost five straight. The Minutemen are underdogs by 5.5 points in the contest, which starts at 2 p.m. ET (on ESPN+) on Saturday, February 28, 2026. The matchup has an over/under set at 151.5 points.
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Bowling Green Cover -5.5 vs UMass -106
Bowling Green vs. UMass betting lines
- Bowling Green moneyline odds to win: -223
- UMass moneyline odds to win: +180
- Spread: Bowling Green (-5.5)
- Total: 151.5
Bowling Green statistics, trends and more
As the home team
- Bowling Green has covered the spread in a lower percentage of its home games than road games. It has covered four times in 13 games when playing at home, and it has covered five times in 11 games on the road.
- When playing at home, the Falcons eclipse the over/under 38.5% of the time (five of 13 games). They’ve hit the over in 36.4% of away games (four of 11 contests).
- Bowling Green has performed worse as a moneyline favorite at home, sporting a home record of 6-5, compared to going 4-2 on the road.
Recent trends
- On offense, the Falcons have had a tough time putting the ball in the basket over their last 10 games, scoring 71.5 points per contest over that stretch as opposed to the 81.7 they’ve racked up over the course of this year.
- Bowling Green’s defense has been more porous as of late, as the team has allowed 74.6 points per game over its past 10 compared to the 71.8 points per game its opponents are averaging this season.
- The Falcons are trending down from deep over their last 10 outings, making 6.6 threes per game and shooting 33.5% from long range in comparison to their season-long averages of 7.1 makes and 34.4% from distance in the 2025-26 season.
Bowling Green betting records this season
- ATS Record: 10-16-0 (Home: 4-9-0; Away: 5-6-0)
- ATS Record When Favored by 5.5+: 5-8-0 (As Favorite: 8-11-0; As Underdog: 2-5-0)
- O-U-P: 9-17-0 (Home: 5-8-0; Away: 4-7-0)
- Record When Moneyline Favorite: 12-7 (Home: 6-5; Away: 4-2)
- Record When Moneyline Underdog: 1-6 (Home: 0-2; Away: 1-4)
| Field Goal % | Opp. Field Goal % | Rebounds | Opp. Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.7 (45th in nation) | 43.3 (122nd) | 32.4 (155th) | 30.7 (164th) | 14.2 (154th) | 11.1 (198th) |
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UMass statistics, trends and more
As the away team
- This year, UMass is 4-10-0 at home against the spread (.286 winning percentage). On the road, it is 3-6-0 ATS (.333).
- Looking at the over/under, Minutemen games have finished over eight of 14 times at home (57.1%), and seven of nine on the road (77.8%).
- The Minutemen’s winning percentage at home as moneyline underdogs is .000, both at home (0-3) and away (0-3).
Recent trends
- The Minutemen have fared better offensively in their last 10 games, compiling 81.6 points per contest, 1.0 more than their season average of 80.6.
- UMass is ceding 83.0 points per contest over its previous 10 games, compared to its season average of 77.2 points allowed.
- The Minutemen are sinking 8.4 treys per contest with a 37.7% three-point percentage over their previous 10 games, compared to their season averages of 7.9 and 35.7%.
UMass betting records this season
- ATS Record: 10-18-0 (Home: 4-10-0; Away: 3-6-0)
- ATS Record When Underdog by 5.5+: 3-0-0 (As Favorite: 3-15-0; As Underdog: 7-3-0)
- O-U-P: 18-10-0 (Home: 8-6-0; Away: 7-2-0)
- Record When Moneyline Favorite: 10-7 (Home: 9-2; Away: 1-4)
- Record When Moneyline Underdog: 3-7 (Home: 0-3; Away: 0-3)
| Field Goal % | Opp. Field Goal % | Rebounds | Opp. Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.9 (79th in nation) | 44.8 (213th) | 34.1 (77th) | 28.6 (46th) | 17.5 (21st) | 12.8 (325th) |
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