The AFC Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs features Drake Maye and the New England Patriots against the Houston Texans at 3 p.m. ET Sunday at Gillette Stadium. Let’s break down all of the prop bets available for Maye in this contest, using stats and trends to determine sound predictions.
Passing Yards Prop
Bet $20, Payout $38.02
Drake Maye to go over 221.5 yards
Drake Maye Prop Lines
- Matchup: New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Date: January 18, 2026
- Passing yards prop: Over 221.5 (-111)
- Rushing yards prop: Over 36.5 (-113)
Drake Maye Stats and Trends
- Maye has passed for 4,394 yards (258.5 per game), completing 72% of his passes, with 31 TDs and eight INTs.
- Maye is throwing for 258.5 yards per game, which is more than his prop bet total for this matchup of 221.5.
- In 14 of 17 games this year, Maye has eclipsed 221.5 passing yards.
- His 258.5 passing yards per game average is 24.8 higher than his average over/under of 233.7.
- So far this year, Maye has exceeded his passing yards prop total in 13 of 17 opportunities.
- He has completed at least one touchdown pass in 15 of 17 games (including multiple TDs 11 times).
- In addition Maye has 450 yards rushing on 103 attempts with four TDs, averaging 26.5 yards per game.
Recent Performances vs. the Texans
| Week | Opponent | Pass Yards Allowed | Pass TDs Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rams | 224 | 1 |
| 2 | Buccaneers | 191 | 2 |
| 3 | Jaguars | 205 | 0 |
| 4 | Titans | 93 | 0 |
| 5 | Ravens | 163 | 0 |
| 7 | Seahawks | 198 | 1 |
| 8 | 49ers | 175 | 2 |
| 9 | Broncos | 171 | 2 |
| 10 | Jaguars | 119 | 1 |
| 11 | Titans | 171 | 1 |
| 12 | Bills | 183 | 0 |
| 13 | Colts | 195 | 2 |
| 14 | Chiefs | 148 | 0 |
| 15 | Cardinals | 235 | 3 |
| 16 | Raiders | 170 | 2 |
| 17 | Chargers | 201 | 1 |
| 18 | Colts | 278 | 2 |
| Playoffs | Steelers | 112 | 0 |
Patriots Home Splits
- The Patriots’ average points scored (28.2) and conceded (18.2) in home games are both lower than their overall averages of 28.8 and 18.8, respectively.
- At home, the Patriots rack up 370.9 yards per game and give up 270.2. That’s less than they gain (379.4) and allow (295.2) overall.
- The Patriots’ average passing yards gained (232.8) and conceded (173.6) at home are both lower than their overall averages of 250.5 and 193.5, respectively.
- The Patriots’ average yards rushing at home (138.1) is higher than their overall average (128.9). And their average yards allowed at home (96.7) is lower than overall (101.7).
- The Patriots convert 44.2% of third downs at home (1.3% higher than their overall average), and concede 38.5% at home (same as overall).
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