The Florida Gators (2-4) play a conference opponent when they host the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-2) on Saturday, October 18, 2025 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in an SEC clash.

The Gators are expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -9.5) versus the Bulldogs. The over/under for this game is 50.5 points.

Below you’ll find our preview for this this matchup between the Gators and the Bulldogs, and find all of our predictions here, too!

Florida vs. Mississippi State betting lines

• Spread favorite: Gators (-9.5)
• Moneyline: Gators (-362), Bulldogs (+284)
• Total: 50.5 points
• TV Channel: SEC Network
• Live Stream: Fubo

Florida vs. Mississippi State betting info and stats

Florida has won twice against the spread this season (2-4-0). Florida has covered the spread once when the favorite by at least 9.5 points (a 1-1 ATS record). Florida lost the only game it played when favored on the moneyline this season. Mississippi State is 5-1-0 against the spread so far this season. When Mississippi State is an underdog of 9.5 points or more, it has have yet to cover the spread. Mississippi State’s record when playing as the underdog this year is 1-2.

Florida vs. Mississippi State recent stats and trends

Florida Gators

• Florida has covered the spread once in its last three contests while putting together a 1-2 record straight-up in those games.
• Florida and its opponents have combined to hit the over in two of those games.
• Florida’s last three games have ended with an average of 47.3 points scored. That’s 3.2 fewer points than this contest’s over/under.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

• Mississippi State is 2-1 against the spread in its past three games and has a 1-2 straight-up record in those matchups.
• Mississippi State and its opponents have hit the over in one of those games.
• Mississippi State’s last three games have ended with an average of 56.2 points scored. That’s 5.7 more points than this contest’s over/under.

Florida vs. Mississippi State key players

Florida Gators

• DJ Lagway has compiled 1,233 yards (205.5 ypg) on 125-of-188 passing with nine touchdowns compared to seven interceptions this season.
• Jadan Baugh has 461 rushing yards on 94 carries with three touchdowns. He’s also added 17 catches for 94 yards (23.5 per game).
• Ja’Kobi Jackson has carried the ball 27 times for 98 yards (24.5 per game).
• Vernell Brown III’s 368 yards as a receiver lead the team. He’s been targeted 38 times and has collected 27 catches.
• Hayden Hansen has hauled in 18 passes while averaging 29.2 yards per game and scoring one touchdown.
• J.Michael Sturdivant has a total of 171 receiving yards so far this year, grabbing 12 passes and scoring one touchdown.
• Brien Taylor Jr. has 1.5 sacks to lead the team, and also has 1.0 TFL and 13 tackles.
• Myles Graham is the team’s top-tackler this year. He’s picked up 32 tackles and 2.0 TFL.
• Jordan Castell has a team-leading two interceptions to go along with 21 tackles and two passes defended.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

• Blake Shapen has put up 1,204 passing yards, or 200.7 per game, so far this season. He has completed 66.7% of his passes and has thrown nine touchdowns with four interceptions.
• Da’Marion Bothwell has rushed for 465 yards on 84 carries so far this year while scoring six times on the ground.
• Davon Booth has rushed for 265 yards on 59 carries with four touchdowns.
• Brenen Thompson’s 378 receiving yards (63.0 yards per game) are a team high. He has 22 receptions on 32 targets with four touchdowns.
• Anthony Evans III has caught 31 passes and compiled 364 receiving yards (60.7 per game) with two touchdowns.
• Jordan Mosley’s seven catches (on 12 targets) have netted him 159 yards (31.8 ypg) and one touchdown.
• Will Whitson has racked up 2.0 sacks to pace the team, while also picking up 4.0 TFL and seven tackles.
• Jahron Manning, Mississippi State’s tackle leader, has 40 tackles and one interception this year.
• Hunter Washington has picked off a team-high one pass. He also has 20 tackles and one pass defended to his name.