The AFC Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs features Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers versus the New England Patriots at 8:15 p.m. ET Sunday at Gillette Stadium. In this piece we’ll break down the statistical trends and insights to help you make good predictions on prop bets for Herbert’s matchup.
Passing Yards Prop
Bet $20, Payout $37.70
Justin Herbert to go over 222.5 yards
Justin Herbert Prop Lines
- Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Date: January 11, 2026
- Passing yards prop: Over 222.5 (-113)
- Rushing yards prop: Over 29.5 (-109)
Justin Herbert Stats and Trends
- Herbert has passed for 3,727 yards (232.9 per game), completing 66.4% of his passes, with 26 TDs and 13 INTs.
- Herbert is throwing for 232.9 yards per game, which is higher than his prop bet over/under for this matchup of 222.5.
- In 16 games this season, Herbert has topped 222.5 passing yards on nine occasions.
- His passing yards average of 232.9 yards this season is lower than his average prop bet total (242.8) by 9.9 passing yards.
- This year, Herbert has finished above his passing yards prop total in eight of 16 opportunities.
- He has completed a touchdown pass in 15 of 16 games this season — including multiple TDs eight times.
- In addition Herbert has 498 yards on the ground (31.1 per game), on 83 carries plus two touchdowns.
Recent Performances vs. the Patriots
| Week | Opponent | Pass Yards Allowed | Pass TDs Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raiders | 333 | 1 |
| 2 | Dolphins | 297 | 2 |
| 3 | Steelers | 139 | 2 |
| 4 | Panthers | 197 | 2 |
| 5 | Bills | 245 | 2 |
| 6 | Saints | 223 | 0 |
| 7 | Titans | 216 | 1 |
| 8 | Browns | 145 | 2 |
| 9 | Falcons | 217 | 3 |
| 10 | Buccaneers | 258 | 3 |
| 11 | Jets | 105 | 1 |
| 12 | Bengals | 187 | 1 |
| 13 | Giants | 128 | 1 |
| 15 | Bills | 181 | 3 |
| 16 | Ravens | 159 | 0 |
| 17 | Jets | 143 | 0 |
| 18 | Dolphins | 117 | 1 |
Chargers Away Splits
- The Chargers score 19.1 points per game away from home (2.5 fewer than overall), and allow 20.1 in away games (0.1 more than overall).
- The Chargers pick up 312.5 yards per game in road games (21.3 fewer than overall), and give up 272.4 on the road (12.8 fewer than overall).
- The Chargers pick up fewer passing yards in road games (199.4 per game) than they do overall (212.2), but they also give up fewer away from home (159.6 per game) than overall (179.9).
- The Chargers pick up 113.1 rushing yards per game away from home (8.5 fewer than overall), and allow 112.8 in away games (7.4 more than overall).
- The Chargers convert fewer third downs on the road (39.8%) than they do overall (45.8%) and allow opponents to convert on more third downs away from home (42%) than overall (35.2%).
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