Michael Penix Jr.’s Atlanta Falcons hit the field against the NFC’s Carolina Panthers at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday in Week 11 of the 2025 NFL campaign. Let’s dig into all of the prop bets available for Penix in this contest, using stats and trends to determine sound predictions.
Passing Yards Prop
Bet $20, Payout $37.70
Michael Penix Jr. to go over 225.5 yards
Michael Penix Jr. Prop Lines
- Matchup: Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Passing yards prop: Over 225.5 (-113)
- Rushing yards prop: Over 6.5 (-117)
Michael Penix Jr. Stats and Trends
- Michael Penix Jr. has thrown for 1,807 yards (225.9 per game), completing 58.8% of his throws, with nine TDs and three INTs.
- Penix is passing for 225.9 yards per game, which is higher than his prop bet total for this matchup of 225.5.
- In four games this season, Penix has passed for more than 225.5 yards.
- He has come up short of his season prop bet average (227.5 passing yards) by 1.6 yards per game.
- So far this year, Penix has topped his passing yards prop total in four of eight opportunities.
- He, in six of eight games this season, completed a touchdown pass, including multiple TD throws twice.
- In addition Penix has contributed 61 rushing yards on 20 attempts (and one TD), averaging 7.6 yards per game on the ground.
Recent Performances vs. the Panthers
| Week | Opponent | Pass Yards Allowed | Pass TDs Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaguars | 178 | 1 |
| 2 | Cardinals | 211 | 1 |
| 3 | Falcons | 201 | 0 |
| 4 | Patriots | 203 | 2 |
| 5 | Dolphins | 229 | 3 |
| 6 | Cowboys | 261 | 3 |
| 7 | Jets | 139 | 0 |
| 8 | Bills | 165 | 1 |
| 9 | Packers | 265 | 0 |
| 10 | Saints | 266 | 2 |
Falcons Home Splits
- The Falcons score 22 points per game at home (3.3 more than their overall average), and give up 24.5 at home (1.3 more than overall).
- At home, the Falcons accumulate 362.3 yards per game and concede 295.8. That’s more than they gain overall (330.8), but less than they allow (308.8).
- The Falcons’ average passing yards gained (249.3) and conceded (165) at home are both higher than their overall averages of 211.4 and 162.3, respectively.
- The Falcons accumulate 113 rushing yards per game at home (6.3 less than their overall average), and concede 130.8 at home (15.6 less than overall).
- At home, the Falcons convert 38% of third downs and allow 36.4% to be converted. That’s more than they convert overall (33.6%), and less than they allow (40%).
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