The North Texas Mean Green and the San Diego State Aztecs meet for the New Mexico Bowl on December 27, 2025.

The Aztecs are underdogs, but by less than a touchdown (+6.5), versus the Mean Green (with an over/under of 52.5 points).

Keep reading for our preview for this this matchup between the Mean Green and the Aztecs, and find all of our expert predictions here, too!

North Texas vs. San Diego State betting lines

• Spread favorite: Mean Green (-6.5)
• Moneyline: Mean Green (-269), Aztecs (+217)
• Total: 52.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN
• Live Stream: Fubo

North Texas vs. San Diego State betting info and stats

North Texas has 10 wins against the spread so far this season (10-3-0). North Texas has covered the spread seven times when listed as a favorite by 6.5 or more points this season (7-1 ATS). North Texas has been named the moneyline favorite 13 times this season, and has recorded an 11-2 record in those contests. San Diego State has a 9-3-0 record against the spread so far this season. When San Diego State is an underdog of 6.5 points or more, it has always covered the spread (1-0 ATS). This is the third time this year San Diego State is the moneyline underdog, after split the two games.

North Texas vs. San Diego State recent stats and trends

North Texas Mean Green

• North Texas is a perfect 3-0 against the spread in its last three games, and has a 2-1 straight-up record in those matchups.
• In all three of those games, the final combined score has surpassed the set total.
• The last three North Texas games averaged 63.8 total points, 11.3 more points than this matchup’s over/under.

San Diego State Aztecs

• San Diego State is 2-1 against the spread over its past three games and has a 2-1 straight-up record in those matchups.
• In each of those games, the final combined score was under the set total.
• The past three San Diego State games averaged 8.0 fewer points (44.5) than this matchup’s over/under.

North Texas vs. San Diego State key players

North Texas Mean Green

• Drew Mestemaker has recorded 4,119 yards (316.8 ypg) on 292-of-418 passing with 31 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions this season.
• Caleb Hawkins has carried the ball 200 times for a team-high 1,226 yards on the ground and has found the end zone 23 times as a runner. He’s also tacked on 29 catches for 345 yards (28.8 per game) and three touchdowns via the passing game.
• Makenzie McGill has collected 389 yards on 75 carries, scoring five times.
• Wyatt Young’s 1,209 yards as a receiver lead the team. He’s been targeted 88 times and has totaled 63 catches and 10 touchdowns.
• Cameron Dorner has hauled in 49 passes while averaging 63.1 yards per game and scoring six touchdowns.
• Miles Coleman’s 46 receptions are good enough for 536 yards and two touchdowns.
• Keviyan Huddleston has 5.0 sacks to pace the team, and also has 4.0 TFL and 19 tackles.
• Ethan Wesloski is the team’s leading tackler this year. He’s amassed 66 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one interception.
• Will Jones II has a team-leading two interceptions to go along with 46 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and two passes defended.

San Diego State Aztecs

• Jayden Denegal has recored 1,810 passing yards, or 150.8 per game, so far this season. He has completed 58.6% of his passes and has tossed nine touchdowns with eight interceptions.
• Lucky Sutton has rushed 238 times for 1,232 yards, with 10 touchdowns.
• Christian Washington has run for 483 yards across 87 attempts, scoring three touchdowns.
• Jordan Napier has racked up 632 receiving yards on 48 catches to pace his team so far this season while scoring two touchdowns as a receiver.
• Donovan Brown has 30 receptions (on 53 targets) for a total of 475 yards (43.2 yards per game) and two touchdowns this year.
• Jacob Bostick has racked up 157 reciving yards (31.4 ypg) and three touchdowns this season.
• Trey White leads the team with 7.0 sacks, and also has 8.0 TFL and 38 tackles.
• Owen Chambliss is the team’s tackle leader this year. He’s collected 81 tackles, 8.0 TFL, four sacks, and one interception.
• Chris Johnson has a team-leading four interceptions to go along with 42 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and four passes defended.