Week 9 action in the NFL features Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs facing off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8:15 PM ET on Monday. Let’s break down all of the prop bets available for Mahomes in this matchup, using stats and trends to determine sound predictions.
Passing Yards Prop
Bet $20, Payout $37.39
Patrick Mahomes to go over 249.5 yards
Patrick Mahomes Prop Lines
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- Date: November 4, 2024
- Passing yards prop: Over 249.5 (-115)
- Rushing yards prop: Over 19.5 (-115)
Patrick Mahomes Stats and Trends
- Mahomes has passed for 1,651 yards (235.9 per game), completing 68.4% of his passes, with eight TDs and nine INTs.
- Monday’s over/under for Mahomes is 249.5 passing yards, which is 13.6 more yards than his average of 235.9 on the year.
- In three games this season, Mahomes has thrown for more than 249.5 yards.
- His average passing yards prop this year is 215.7, which he has surpassed by 20.2 yards per game.
- This year, Mahomes has gone over his passing yards prop bet total twice.
- He has tossed a touchdown pass in five of seven games this year, with more than one TD throw three times.
- Mahomes has added 139 yards on 34 carries and one touchdown, averaging 19.9 yards rushing per game.
Recent Performances vs. the Buccaneers
| Week | Opponent | Pass Yards Allowed | Pass TDs Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Commanders | 161 | 0 |
| 2 | Lions | 324 | 0 |
| 3 | Broncos | 216 | 0 |
| 4 | Eagles | 114 | 1 |
| 5 | Falcons | 477 | 4 |
| 6 | Saints | 222 | 1 |
| 7 | Ravens | 264 | 5 |
| 8 | Falcons | 265 | 4 |
Chiefs Home Splits
- The Chiefs’ average points scored (26.3) and conceded (19.3) in home games are both higher than their overall averages of 24.7 and 17.6, respectively.
- At home, the Chiefs accumulate 366.3 yards per game and give up 330.7. That’s more than they gain (348.0) and allow (295.0) overall.
- The Chiefs’ average passing yards gained (246.3) and conceded (229) in home games are both higher than their overall averages of 225.9 and 212.7, respectively.
- The Chiefs rack up 120 rushing yards per game at home (2.1 less than their overall average), and concede 101.7 at home (19.4 more than overall).
- The Chiefs convert 35.5% of third downs at home (15.0% lower than their overall average), and give up 40.5% at home (5.6% higher than overall).
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