Tua Tagovailoa and his Miami Dolphins teamates will face the Buffalo Bills at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday in Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season. In this piece we’ll dig into the statistical trends and insights to help you make good predictions on prop bets for Tagovailoa’s matchup.
Passing Yards Prop
Bet $20, Payout $37.70
Tua Tagovailoa to go over 217.5 yards
Tua Tagovailoa Prop Lines
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Date: November 9, 2025
- Passing yards prop: Over 217.5 (-113)
- Rushing yards prop: Over 2.5 (-128)
Tua Tagovailoa Stats and Trends
- This campaign Tagovailoa has collected 1,779 passing yards (197.7 per game), completing 184 of 271 attempts (67.9%), with 15 TD throws and 11 picks.
- Compared to his 217.5-yard over/under for this contest, Tagovailoa is passing for fewer yards per game — 197.7 — this year.
- In three games this season, Tagovailoa has passed for more than 217.5 yards.
- He has come up short of his season prop bet average (223.8 passing yards) by 26.1 yards per game.
- This year, Tagovailoa has gone over his passing yards prop total in four of nine opportunities.
- He has tossed a touchdown pass in seven of nine games this season, with more than one TD throw five times.
- Tagovailoa has also rushed 12 times for 39 yards, picking up 4.3 yards per game.
Recent Performances vs. the Bills
| Week | Opponent | Pass Yards Allowed | Pass TDs Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ravens | 194 | 2 |
| 2 | Jets | 54 | 1 |
| 3 | Dolphins | 146 | 2 |
| 4 | Saints | 109 | 1 |
| 5 | Patriots | 267 | 0 |
| 6 | Falcons | 233 | 1 |
| 8 | Panthers | 130 | 0 |
| 9 | Chiefs | 226 | 0 |
Dolphins Home Splits
- The Dolphins’ average points scored (21.8) and conceded (27.8) at home are both higher than their overall averages of 20 and 27, respectively.
- The Dolphins accumulate 332.8 yards per game at home (41.4 more than their overall average), and give up 369.5 at home (25.8 more than overall).
- The Dolphins rack up 230.8 passing yards per game at home (36.6 more than their overall average), and concede 217.3 at home (19.2 more than overall).
- At home, the Dolphins accumulate 102 rushing yards per game and give up 152.3. That’s more than they gain (97.2) and allow (145.6) overall.
- The Dolphins’ offensive third-down percentage in home games (33.3%) is lower than their overall average (38.5%). And their defensive third-down percentage at home (44.9%) is higher than overall (42.6%).
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