The USC Trojans and the TCU Horned Frogs play in the Alamo Bowl on December 30, 2025.

The Horned Frogs are underdogs, but by less than a touchdown (+4.5), against the Trojans (with an over/under of 56.5 points).

Below you’ll find our preview for this this matchup between the Trojans and the Horned Frogs, and discover all of our expert predictions here, too!

USC vs. TCU betting lines

• Spread favorite: Trojans (-4.5)
• Moneyline: Trojans (-198), Horned Frogs (+165)
• Total: 56.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN
• Live Stream: Fubo

USC vs. TCU betting info and stats

USC has five wins against the spread in 12 opportunities so far this season (5-7-0). USC has covered the spread in three of the games this season when listed as a favorite by at least 4.5 points (3-6 ATS). In 10 games as a moneyline favorite, USC has gone 9-1. TCU has a 6-5-1 record against the spread so far this season. TCU has been listed as an underdog on the moneyline two times so far this season, and it lost both games.

USC vs. TCU recent stats and trends

USC Trojans

• USC is winless against the spread in its last three games, and has a 2-1 straight-up record in those contest.
• Once in those three games, the final combined score went over the set total.
• The last three USC games averaged 55.5 total points, 1.0 fewer point than this matchup’s over/under.

TCU Horned Frogs

• TCU has covered the spread twice in its last three matchups while putting up a 2-1 record straight-up in those games.
• The final combined score of the past three TCU games has exceeded the set total two times.
• The past three TCU games averaged 1.5 fewer points (55.0) than this matchup’s over/under.

USC vs. TCU key players

USC Trojans

• Jayden Maiava has compiled 3,431 yards (285.9 ypg) on 247-of-373 passing with 23 touchdowns compared to eight interceptions this season. In addition, he’s added 150 rushing yards (12.5 ypg) on 51 carries while scoring six touchdowns on the ground.
• King Miller has 873 rushing yards on 131 carries with seven touchdowns.
• Waymond Jordan has been handed the ball 88 times this year and racked up 576 yards (96.0 per game) with five touchdowns.
• Makai Lemon’s 1,156 yards as a receiver pace the team. He’s been targeted 106 times and has collected 79 catches and 11 touchdowns.
• Ja’Kobi Lane has grabbed 49 passes while averaging 67.7 yards per game and scoring four touchdowns.
• Lake McRee has racked up 30 catches for 450 yards, an average of 37.5 yards per game. He’s scored four times as a receiver this season.
• Braylan Shelby has 4.5 sacks to pace the team, and also has 5.0 TFL, 14 tackles, and one interception.
• Desman Stephens II is the team’s top-tackler this year. He’s picked up 47 tackles.
• Bishop Fitzgerald leads the team with five interceptions, while also putting up 31 tackles, 2.0 TFL, one sack, and five passes defended.

TCU Horned Frogs

• Josh Hoover has thrown for 3,472 yards (289.3 yards per game) while completing 65.9% of his passes and collecting 29 touchdown passes with 13 interceptions this season.
• The team’s top rusher, Jeremy Payne, has carried the ball 97 times for 550 yards (55.0 per game) with four touchdowns. He’s also caught 16 passes for 157 yards and one touchdown.
• Kevorian Barnes has racked up 97 carries and totaled 443 yards with three touchdowns.
• Eric McAlister leads his team with 1,121 receiving yards on 64 receptions with 10 touchdowns.
• Jordan Dwyer has 54 receptions (on 84 targets) for a total of 730 yards (60.8 yards per game) and seven touchdowns this year.
• Joseph Manjack IV’s 59 targets have resulted in 41 grabs for 551 yards and three touchdowns.
• Kaleb Elarms-Orr paces the team with 4.0 sacks. He’s also the team’s tackle leader, and has recorded 8.0 TFL and 92 tackles.
• Bud Clark has a team-leading four interceptions to go along with 39 tackles, 1.0 TFL, one sack, and four passes defended.