Dominique Daniels Jr. and the Cal Baptist Lancers (16-6, 6-3 WAC) are 9.5-point favorites against Dior Johnson and the Tarleton State Texans (11-11, 2-7 WAC) Thursday, February 5, 2026 at Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center. The game starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The matchup’s point total is 139.5.

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Cal Baptist vs. Tarleton State betting lines

• Cal Baptist moneyline odds to win: -575
• Tarleton State moneyline odds to win: +419
• Spread: Cal Baptist (-9.5)
• Total: 139.5

Cal Baptist statistics, trends and more

As the home team

• When playing at home, Cal Baptist owns a worse record against the spread (4-6-0) compared to its ATS record in road games (8-2-0).
• Looking at over/unders, the Lancers hit the over less often when playing at home, as they’ve gone over the total three times in 10 opportunities this season (30%). In road games, they have hit the over five times in 10 opportunities (50%).
• As a moneyline favorite, Cal Baptist has taken 10 of 10 games at home, good for a 1.000 winning percentage. It has won two of three games away from home (.667) as a moneyline favorite.

Recent trends

• The Lancers have been scoring 72.1 points per contest in their last 10 appearances, an average that’s a little lower than the 74.0 they’ve scored over the course of the 2025-26 campaign.
• Cal Baptist’s points-allowed average over its last 10 games (68.1) is 1.5 fewer points per game than the team is allowing over the entire season (69.6).
• The Lancers’ 5.4 made three-pointers per-game average in their past 10 games are less than the 5.8 they average on the season, but those 10 games have seen a higher percentage of three-point shots made, 32.1% compared to their season-long percentage of 31.5% from deep.

Cal Baptist betting records this season

• ATS Record: 13-9-0 (Home: 4-6-0; Away: 8-2-0)
• ATS Record When Favored by 9.5+: 1-6-0 (As Favorite: 7-7-0; As Underdog: 6-2-0)
• O-U-P: 8-14-0 (Home: 3-7-0; Away: 5-5-0)
• Record When Moneyline Favorite: 13-1 (Home: 10-0; Away: 2-1)
• Record When Moneyline Underdog: 3-5 (Home: 0-0; Away: 3-4)

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Tarleton State statistics, trends and more

As the away team

• Tarleton State’s winning percentage against the spread at home is .500 (4-4-0). On the road, it is .600 (6-4-0).
• Looking at the over/under, Texans games have gone over less often at home (four of eight, 50%) than on the road (six of 10, 60%).
• The Texans’ winning percentage at home as moneyline underdogs is .000 (0-2), and on the road it is .250 (2-6).

Recent trends

• In their past 10 games, the Texans are compiling 74.7 points per contest, compared to their season average of 78.0.
• While Tarleton State is giving up 74.3 points per game in 2025-26, it has been worse over its past 10 games, allowing 76.8 points per contest.
• The Texans are draining 4.1 threes per contest over their past 10 games, which is 0.9 fewer three-pointers than their average for the season (5.0). Additionally, they sport a worse three-point percentage over their last 10 games (29.7%) compared to their season average from three-point land (32.3%).

Tarleton State betting records this season

• ATS Record: 10-8-0 (Home: 4-4-0; Away: 6-4-0)
• ATS Record When Underdog by 9.5+: 3-1-0 (As Favorite: 5-3-0; As Underdog: 5-5-0)
• O-U-P: 10-8-0 (Home: 4-4-0; Away: 6-4-0)
• Record When Moneyline Favorite: 5-3 (Home: 4-2; Away: 1-1)
• Record When Moneyline Underdog: 2-8 (Home: 0-2; Away: 2-6)