The Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes will hit the field against the Buffalo Bills at 6:30 PM ET on Sunday for the AFC Championship Game of the NFL playoffs. Below, we dig into Mahomes’ stats and trends as they relate to his prop bets to help you pick out the best bets for the player and this matchup.
Passing Yards Prop
Bet $20, Payout $38.35
Patrick Mahomes to go over 259.5 yards
Patrick Mahomes Prop Lines
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
- Time: 6:30 PM ET
- Date: January 26, 2025
- Passing yards prop: Over 259.5 (-109)
- Rushing yards prop: Over 23.5 (-110)
Patrick Mahomes Stats and Trends
- Mahomes has thrown for 3,928 yards (245.5 per game), completing 67.5% of his throws, with 26 TDs and 11 INTs.
- Mahomes’ passing yardage average this season — 245.5 yards per game — is 14.0 below Sunday’s over/under.
- In nine of 16 matchups this season, Mahomes has exceeded 259.5 passing yards.
- His 245.5 passing yards per game average is 28.2 higher than his average prop bet total of 217.3.
- This season, Mahomes has hit the over on his passing yards prop total in seven of 14 opportunities.
- He has tossed a touchdown pass in 14 of 16 games this season, with more than one TD throw eight times.
- Mahomes has also run 58 times for 307 yards and two scores, averaging 19.2 yards per game.
Recent Performances vs. the Bills
| Week | Opponent | Pass Yards Allowed | Pass TDs Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardinals | 146 | 1 |
| 2 | Dolphins | 212 | 1 |
| 3 | Jaguars | 147 | 1 |
| 4 | Ravens | 156 | 2 |
| 5 | Texans | 331 | 1 |
| 6 | Jets | 272 | 2 |
| 7 | Titans | 200 | 1 |
| 8 | Seahawks | 201 | 0 |
| 9 | Dolphins | 224 | 2 |
| 10 | Colts | 240 | 2 |
| 11 | Chiefs | 181 | 3 |
| 13 | 49ers | 86 | 0 |
| 14 | Rams | 320 | 2 |
| 15 | Lions | 473 | 5 |
| 16 | Patriots | 253 | 2 |
| 17 | Jets | 169 | 2 |
| 18 | Patriots | 232 | 1 |
| Playoffs | Broncos | 145 | 1 |
| Playoffs | Ravens | 240 | 2 |
Chiefs Home Splits
- In home games, the Chiefs put up 23.8 points per game and concede 18.6. That’s more than they score overall (22.6), but less than they give up (19.2).
- At home, the Chiefs rack up 348.1 yards per game and give up 321.1. That’s more than they gain (327.6) and allow (320.6) overall.
- In home games, the Chiefs accumulate 245.1 passing yards per game and give up 224.6. That’s more than they gain (222.4) and allow (218.8) overall.
- At home, the Chiefs accumulate 103 rushing yards per game and concede 96.5. That’s less than they gain (105.3) and allow (101.8) overall.
- At home, the Chiefs convert 47.7% of third downs and allow 43.4% to be converted. That’s less than they convert overall (48.5%), and more than they allow (43.3%).
Author Profile
BetDecider Team
The BetDecider team brings you the most current sports betting content, with expert insights and tips. Our aim is that you can make an informed betting decision, including best odds and exclusive sportsbook offers, to maximize your betting experience.
