The SMU Mustangs (19-11, 8-9 ACC) visit the Florida State Seminoles (16-14, 9-8 ACC) after losing three straight road games. The Seminoles are favored by only 1.5 points in the contest, which starts at 2 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 7, 2026. The matchup has an over/under of 158.5 points.
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Bet $20, Payout $38.18
Florida State Cover -1.5 vs SMU -110
Florida State vs. SMU betting lines
- Florida State moneyline odds to win: -127
- SMU moneyline odds to win: +105
- Spread: Florida State (-1.5)
- Total: 158.5
Florida State statistics, trends and more
As the home team
- Florida State has done a better job covering the spread when playing on the road (8-3-0) than it has at home (9-7-0).
- The Seminoles have hit the over on the total in seven of 16 home games (43.8%). They’ve fared better on the road, topping the total in five of 11 matchups (45.5%).
- As a moneyline favorite, Florida State has won a lower percentage of its home games (.900) compared to away games (1.000).
Recent trends
- The Seminoles have seen a decrease in scoring recently, putting up 76.1 points per game in their last 10 outings, 3.5 points fewer than the 79.6 they’ve scored this year.
- Florida State’s defense has been more stingy as of late, as the team has given up 71.5 points per game over its last 10 compared to the 77.5 points per game its opponents are averaging this season.
- During their last 10 outings, the Seminoles are making 1.0 fewer three-pointer per game than their season long average (9.1 compared to 10.1 season-long), while shooting a higher percentage from beyond the arc in that span (33.0% compared to 32.0% season-long).
Florida State betting records this season
- ATS Record: 17-13-0 (Home: 9-7-0; Away: 8-3-0)
- ATS Record When Favored by 1.5+: 7-8-0 (As Favorite: 7-8-0; As Underdog: 10-5-0)
- O-U-P: 14-16-0 (Home: 7-9-0; Away: 5-6-0)
- Record When Moneyline Favorite: 11-3 (Home: 9-1; Away: 2-0)
- Record When Moneyline Underdog: 4-11 (Home: 0-5; Away: 4-5)
| Field Goal % | Opp. Field Goal % | Rebounds | Opp. Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.0 (299th in nation) | 44.4 (190th) | 32.8 (123rd) | 34.7 (347th) | 14.2 (149th) | 10.8 (170th) |
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SMU statistics, trends and more
As the away team
- Against the spread, SMU has performed better at home (8-10-0) than on the road (4-5-1).
- Looking at the over/under, Mustangs games have finished over 10 of 18 times at home (55.6%), and five of 10 on the road (50%).
- When moneyline underdogs, the Mustangs have won a higher percentage of games at home (1-2) than on the road (1-4).
Recent trends
- While the Mustangs are putting up 85.2 points per game in 2025-26, they have fallen short of that in their past 10 games, tallying 81.2 points per contest.
- SMU has performed worse defensively in its last 10 games, giving up 79.9 points per contest, 1.9 more points than its season average of 78.0.
- In their past 10 games, the Mustangs are making 8.9 threes per game, 0.7 more than their season average (8.2). They also sport a higher three-point percentage over their previous 10 contests (40.1%) compared to their season average (37.8%).
SMU betting records this season
- ATS Record: 13-16-1 (Home: 8-10-0; Away: 4-5-1)
- ATS Record When Underdog by 1.5+: 5-4-1 (As Favorite: 7-12-0; As Underdog: 6-4-1)
- O-U-P: 17-13-0 (Home: 10-8-0; Away: 5-5-0)
- Record When Moneyline Favorite: 16-4 (Home: 14-1; Away: 2-3)
- Record When Moneyline Underdog: 3-7 (Home: 1-2; Away: 1-4)
| Field Goal % | Opp. Field Goal % | Rebounds | Opp. Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.5 (20th in nation) | 43.3 (114th) | 34.2 (69th) | 30.8 (174th) | 17.3 (22nd) | 10.8 (170th) |
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